Nigeria and Malawi have secured their places in the quarter-finals of the 2026 Women’s Africa Cup of Nations, but Zambia’s elimination has raised questions after the Copper Queens defeated Malawi in their final Group C match.
Zambia appeared to have given themselves a strong chance of advancing after securing a 2-1 victory over Malawi on Wednesday, while Nigeria produced a commanding 6-2 win over Egypt.
The two results left Malawi, Nigeria and Zambia all level on six points, creating a three-way tie for the two available quarter-final places.
However, Zambia’s victory over Malawi was not enough to save them.
How the three-way tie-break worked
With three teams level on points, the relevant head-to-head results among Malawi, Nigeria and Zambia came into play.
The results against Egypt, who finished fourth in the group, were removed from the calculation for the three-team tie-break.
That left the three contenders with an identical three points each from their matches against one another.
The next criterion was their goal difference in those head-to-head matches. That also failed to separate the teams.
The tie-break therefore moved to goals scored in the matches involving the three tied teams.
The figures then became decisive:
Malawi – 3 points, 4 goals scored
Nigeria – 3 points, 3 goals scored
Zambia – 3 points, 2 goals scored.
That meant Malawi finished ahead of Nigeria, while Zambia were pushed into third place and eliminated.
Why Zambia’s win did not save them.
The crucial point is that Zambia’s 2-1 victory over Malawi was considered alongside the other relevant matches in the three-team calculation.
Although the Copper Queens collected maximum points from that particular fixture, they could not overcome their lower goals-scored tally across the head-to-head games involving the three tied teams.
In simple terms, Zambia won the final match but lost the mathematical battle created by the three-way tie-break.
Their elimination also highlights the importance of goals scored when teams cannot be separated by points and goal difference.
Malawi therefore progress as Group C winners, with Nigeria advancing in second place, while Zambia and Egypt exit the competition.
Nigeria’s qualification is particularly significant after the Super Falcons responded emphatically to their opening-day defeat to Malawi by defeating Zambia and then dismantling Egypt 6-2.
Both Nigeria and Malawi will now wait for the conclusion of Group D on Thursday before discovering their quarter-final opponents.
The quarter-finals are scheduled to begin on Saturday, August 8, with the remaining knockout pairings to be confirmed after the final group-stage fixtures.
For Zambia, however, the mathematics has delivered a painful verdict: beating Malawi was not enough. Their lower head-to-head goals tally ultimately ended their WAFCON 2026 campaign.
